Heh, they say this like they actually knew or something.
…while economists predict the worst is over and recovery is on the horizon in 2010, no real job growth is expected for at least another year.
“It won’t feel like a recovery until there’s job growth, which won’t happen until 2011,” said Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana.
What a gig, eh? Base your projections on recent events. Rinse, repeat, ka-ching!
Contrary to popular belief, Montana’s economy didn’t lag behind the rest of the nation in terms of the effects of the recession. Data show that Montana’s downturn, for the most part, was in sync with the rest of the country, Barkey said.
What was lagging was the ability to collect reliable and timely data in Montana, he said.
Which brings me back to my old perennial, the Gran Salida.
Why do I pay attention to anecdotal evidence? Because academics are always the last to find out what’s happening. If you wait until a social trend turns up in some professor’s peer-reviewed charts, you are waiting too long.
My guess is they won’t know what will happen in 2011 until about 2015.
on Jan 23rd, 2010 at 2:33 pm
People forget what was reported in the past and it appears to me that some politicians and journalists adhere to this belief in their actions and articles. IMO they can say anything and get away with it, if enough time has passed.
For example, as Carol pointed out in her post, the Missoulian article states:
‘Contrary to popular belief, Montana’s economy didn’t lag behind the rest of the nation in terms of the effects of the recession. Data show that Montana’s downturn, for the most part, was in sync with the rest of the country, Barkey said.’
… and in an August 4, 2009 Guest Opinion in the Billings Gazette by Mr. Barkey:
‘The good news is that the decline here was milder than in most parts of the country, and that the Montana economy should resume growing as early as this fall. The bad news is that growth will be sluggish. We expect to see high unemployment rates and very slow job growth continuing through the end of next year.’
http://billingsgazette.com/news/opinion/guest/article_1d988f50-809b-11de-8d84-001cc4c03286.html
(I’m not picking on Mr. Barkey, just pointing out an example.)
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I wholeheartedly agree with your last sentence there Carol.
on Jan 23rd, 2010 at 5:48 pm
Carol - did my last post disappear into la la land?
on Jan 24th, 2010 at 10:23 am
Mike, I couldn’t find anything in moderation. I think it dumped one of my yesterday, too.
on Jan 24th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Let’s try this again as my last attempt went into the bit bucket.
Several of us on the Tax committee last session tried to get the revenue estimate in HJ2 lowered even further. Global Insight, the forecasting service the State uses, gave only a 20% chance at that time of their pessimistic forecast playing out so we used the “middle of the road” forecast. Even though we had watched that forecast drop month after month with no end in sight. 94% of our projected “surplus” is gone - from $282 million down to under $17 million. And that is dropping daily as corporate tax revenues fall further and further below the estimate. Nor does that $17 million include supplemental budget requests like the ~$14 million that DPHHS is rumored to have requested.
Terry Johnson gave a pretty grim outlook at the Chamber of Commerce presentation in Helena about 10 days ago. He said he wished he had known then (last session) what he knows now. Oh well, we tried but without any supporting evidence more than just a “gut feel” for the economy, there was no justification to lower the estimate. Terry also said there is a possibility of a special session before the end of the fiscal year.
I have also heard Terry say that he doesn’t expect revenues to return to the 2008 level until 2015.
Some people that have far more experience, and have been around way longer than I, are whispering that we may start off next session $400+ million in the hole. The State is still using the middle of the road forecast which is predicting a recovery this summer. I am not so sure that is going to happen.
Rep. Mike Miller, HD84
http://www.MikeMillerHD84.com
on Jan 24th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
Carol - It did it again… I’ll try one more time and then just give up.
on Jan 24th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
LOL - this is almost humorous. I tried to post it again and it told me duplicate comment. Oh well. Was just passing along info on the state of the State budget that Terry Johnson put out at the Chamber of Commerce meeting in Helena a little over a week ago.
Mike Miller, HD84
http://www.MikeMillerHD84.com
on Jan 25th, 2010 at 9:08 am
Mike, I think it’s the link at the bottom but I don’t know why - I allow up to 3 links.
on Jan 25th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
Thanks, Carol, for “liberating” them from the bottom of the SPAM bucket. I’ll leave the bottom link off in the future.